GM107: What If AI Actually Pushes Interest Rates Higher? ft. Matt Klein

Alan Dunne is joined by Matt Klein to discuss whether the excitement around AI is getting ahead of the economic reality. Matt explains why the parallels with the 1990s productivity boom may be misleading and why stronger productivity could actually push interest rates higher rather than lower. They explore the surge in AI investment, what rising bond yields really tell us about the economy, and whether US debt levels are as worrying as they appear. The conversation also turns to China’s enormous trade surplus, growing global imbalances, the prospect of European tariffs, currency intervention and what Kevin Warsh’s new Fed task forces could mean for monetary policy. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Matt on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and Matt Klein’s return to Top Traders Unplugged 01:57 - Kevin Warsh, Jackson Hole and the outlook for the Fed 05:15 - Why the AI boom may not look like the 1990s 11:39 - How quickly could AI actually boost productivity? 15:47 - Are we seeing an AI productivity boom in the data? 18:56 - Does AI change how we should think about the economy? 21:41 - AI spending, data centers and the risk of a capex bust 26:18 - Why bond yields could have further to rise 31:13 - When higher interest rates might actually be good news 33:17 - US debt sustainability and the risk of a bad equilibrium 37:04 - China and the return of global economic imbalances 42:11 - How China’s massive trade surplus is affecting the world 48:50 - Tariffs, Europe and how countries might respond to China 52:01 - Why the US intervened in the Japanese yen 58:33 - Kevin Warsh’s Fed task forces and what could change next Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer