SI423: Why Trend Following Might Outlast the AI Arms Race ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski explore why the changing structure of global markets may be creating a very different environment for trend followers. They discuss why today’s bond selloff may represent a return to normal rather than an anomaly, how declining safe-haven benefits could reshape government debt, and why geopolitical fragmentation may increase divergence across markets. Mark also examines commodity shortages and the conditions that can produce explosive price moves. Finally, they turn to AI and machine learning, asking whether increasingly similar quantitative models are shortening the life of alpha and why trend following may prove unusually durable in an increasingly crowded investment landscape. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter . Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why trend following may be different in the age of machine learning 02:09 - France, rising yields and changing perceptions of safe assets 07:27 - Trend following performance and a changing bond market 16:29 - Why the structure and participants of markets matter 20:26 - Liquidity, capital flows and the plumbing behind financial crises 27:58 - Globalization, capital flows and the role of the dollar 35:33 - Crises, market upheavals and commodity supercycles 37:32 - Why today’s higher bond yields may actually be normal 45:31 - Are Treasuries losing some of their safe-haven advantage? 52:26 - Geoeconomic fragmentation and what it means for trend following 56:51 - Commodity shortages and why prices can suddenly go parabolic 01:02:12 - AI, crowded models and the shrinking half-life of alpha Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer