SI419: What Happens When AI Starts Building the Portfolio ft. Nick Baltas

Alan Dunne is joined by Nick Baltas to discuss a strong period for trend following and what the latest research says about adapting systematic strategies to changing markets. They examine whether volatility can help determine how quickly trend models should react, and why Nick remains skeptical of relying on regime triggers with limited statistical evidence. The conversation then turns to agentic AI and a new framework for using specialized AI agents in asset allocation. Nick explores how agents could analyze macro regimes, challenge competing portfolio approaches and help investment committees make decisions faster, while also confronting problems around look-ahead bias, reproducibility and human oversight. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter . Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and what’s caught Nick’s attention 01:31 - The extraordinary concentration inside the S&P 500 04:12 - Why bond yields are rising around the world 08:28 - A strong month and year for trend following 12:08 - Why the bond move has happened without a volatility spike 15:12 - Can volatility make trend following more adaptive? 20:43 - What the latest research actually tells us 23:21 - How Nick uses volatility in portfolio construction 25:50 - Can investors identify trend regimes in advance? 27:04 - Why making trend models more complicated may not help 29:30 - V-shaped markets and the problem with regime triggers 32:01 - How agentic AI could reshape asset allocation 44:14 - What actually drives an AI-built portfolio? 50:03 - Why backtesting AI investment models is so difficult 55:05 - Could the same AI framework work for trend following? 58:33 - Using AI to manage competing investment objectives 01:01:22 - When will we see portfolios run by AI agents? Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer